裕民航運股份有限公司 (2606TT) 2026Q1 法說會簡報

Company Overview

公司名稱 (Company Name): 裕民航運股份有限公司 (U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation)
股票代號 (Stock Code): 2606TT
所屬集團 (Group): 遠東集團 (FAR EASTERN GROUP)
ESG 相關指數 (ESG Indices):
- FTSE4Good Emerging Index
- FTSE4Good TIP Taiwan ESG Index
- 2025外資精選台灣100強 (Taiwan FINI 100 Companies)
CFO & 發言人 (CFO & Spokesperson): 張宗良副總經理 (Chang, Tsung-Liang, Vice President)
簡報日期 (Presentation Date): Mar 13, 2026

船隊配置 (Fleet Profile)

多元化的船隊配置船隊噸位與艘數齊升邁向1,000萬載重噸大關 (Large and Diversified Fleet Profile, Approaching the 10 Million DWT Milestone)
- Fleet (船隊):
  - Current (目前): No. 84, mDwt 9.96
  - Target (目標): No. 100, mDwt 10
- Current (# of vessels) (目前船隻數量):
  - Owned (自有): 54
  - Managed (管理): 7
  - JV (合資): 10
  - Total (總計): 71 (100%)
- NB (Newbuilding) (新造船): 13
- Total (總計): 84 (100%)
- Vessel Type (船型) - Current (# of vessels) (目前船隻數量) & %:
  - Dry Bulk (乾散貨):
    - VLOC: Owned 2, Total 2 (3%) -> NB 0, Total 2 (2%)
    - Capesize: Owned 20, JV 3, Total 23 (32%) -> NB 4, Total 27 (32%)
    - Panamax: Owned 14, Managed 7, JV 3, Total 24 (34%) -> NB 0, Total 24 (29%)
    - Ultramax: Owned 8, Total 8 (11%) -> NB 6, Total 14 (17%)
  - Others (其他):
    - Cement Carrier: Owned 4, Total 4 (6%) -> NB 0, Total 4 (5%)
    - Oil Tanker: Owned 4, Total 4 (6%) -> NB 0, Total 4 (5%)
    - CTV: Owned 6, Total 6 (8%) -> NB 0, Total 6 (7%)
    - CSOV: Total 0 (0%) -> NB 2, Total 2 (2%)
    - LNGC: Total 0 (0%) -> NB 1, Total 1 (1%)
- Overall Group (集團總計): Owned 54, Managed 7, JV 10, Total 71 (100%) -> NB 13, Total 84 (100%)
- Delivery schedule (交船時程):
  - 2026: 1 (May: JV LNGC)
  - 2027: 6 (64K*3 + 181K*2 + CSOV)
  - 2028: 6 (64K*3 + 180K*2 + CSOV)

自有船隊持續汰舊換新轉型優化 (Ongoing Fleet Renewal with a Young and Energy-Efficient Profile)

Bulkers (散裝船):
- U-Ming (裕民): Age (yr) 7.55, Eco % (dwt) 94%
- Market (市場): Age (yr) 12.88, Eco % (dwt) 40%
Capesize (海岬型):
- U-Ming Age: 7.8 yr
- Dry bulk Age: 12.1 yr
- U-Ming Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs): 100%
- Dry bulk Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs): 42%
Panamax (巴拿馬型):
- U-Ming Age: 8.7 yr
- Dry bulk Age: 12.6 yr
- U-Ming Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs): 72%
- Dry bulk Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs): 40%
Handymax (輕便型):
- U-Ming Age: 5.0 yr
- Dry bulk Age: 12.6 yr
- U-Ming Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs): 100%
- Dry bulk Eco' vessels, % dwt (rhs): 43%
Source: Clarksons WFR as at Feb 2026 | "Eco – Electronic Engine Modern" – a vessel with an electronic injection main engine contracted after 1st January 2012.

Sustainable & Smart fleet (永續與智慧船隊)

碳排放減少 (Carbon emission reduction):
- -12% ↓: Taiwan's 1st company to install Rotor Sail for VLOC (元裕 GRAND PIONEER)
- -35% ↓: Taiwan's 1st company to operate LNG DF vessels

Financial Highlights

2025年營運暨財務概況 (2025 annual results highlights)

Year Ended 31 December (截至12月31日止年度):

NT$m (百萬新台幣)	2025	2024	YoY (年增率)
BDI	1,681	1,755	-4.2%
營業收入 (Revenue)	15,566	16,343	-4.8%
營業毛利 (Gross Profit)	4,484	5,221	-14.1%
營業毛利率 (Gross Profit Margin)	28.8%	31.9%	-9.8%
營業淨利 (Operating Income)	3,704	4,485	-17.4%
營業淨利率 (Operating Income Margin)	23.8%	27.4%	-13.3%
稅後淨利 (Net Income after Tax)	3,640	4,681	-22.2%
基本 EPS (NT$) (Basic EPS)	4.31	5.54	-22.2%

Total Revenue & Operating Income (NT$Bn) (總收入與營業淨利 - 十億新台幣):
- Revenue (收入):
  - 2021: 14.0
  - 2022: 14.2
  - 2023: 14.4
  - 2024: 16.3
  - 2025: 15.6
- Operating Income (營業淨利):
  - 2021: 3.8
  - 2022: 4.3
  - 2023: 2.7
  - 2024: 4.5
  - 2025: 3.7
EPS (每股盈餘):
- 2021: 5.79
- 2022: 5.21
- 2023: 3.24
- 2024: 5.54
- 2025: 4.31
BDI (波羅的海乾散貨指數):
- 2021: 2,943
- 2022: 1,934
- 2023: 1,378
- 2024: 1,755
- 2025: 1,681

Recent Performance and Results

靈活精準的市場調度驅動超越市場水準的日租金表現 (Agile and strategic market deployment driving superior time charter rates across all segments)

Capesize 2025 TCE (海岬型2025期租等價):
- BCI 180K: 20,232
- UM Eco 206K: 24,273 (+20% vs BCI 180K)
- UM 180K: 21,937 (+8% vs BCI 180K)
Panamax 2025 TCE (巴拿馬型2025期租等價):
- BPI 82K: 12,693
- UM 82/85K: 13,539 (+7% vs BPI 82K)
- UM 98/100K: 17,065 (+34% vs BPI 82K)
Supra/Ultramax 2025 TCE (超級/極限靈便型2025期租等價):
- BSI 63K: 13,561
- UM Supra/Ultramax: 14,306 (+5% vs BSI 63K)
Outperformance is supported by fleet quality and disciplined contract mix management. (優異表現得益於船隊品質和嚴謹的合約組合管理。)
Source: Baltic Exchange, excludes 5% commission

2025年各船型營收貢獻與合約配置 (Revenue Contribution and Contract Coverage by Vessel Type (2025))

Revenue Mix by Vessel Type (%) (按船型劃分的收入組合):
- Cape (海岬型): 55%
- PMX (巴拿馬型): 18%
- Supra (超級靈便型): 9%
- Charter-in (租入船): 7%
- Mgmt. (管理): 7%
- Cement carrier (水泥船): 4%
Operating Days Mix: VC vs. TC (%) (營運天數組合: 論程租 vs. 期租):
- VC (論程租): 40%
- TC (期租): 60%
Fleet Employment Profile by Vessel Type (%) (按船型劃分的船隊僱傭概況):
- Cape (海岬型): Fixed (固定) 57%, Spot (現貨) 43%
- PMX (巴拿馬型): Fixed (固定) 27%, Spot (現貨) 73%
- Supra (超級靈便型): Fixed (固定) 26%, Spot (現貨) 74%

海岬型船舶帶動下前兩月現貨市場表現優於歷史季節性 (Spot Market TCE: First Two Months Performance Above Seasonal Averages)

2026 YTD average (2026年迄今平均):
- Capesize (BCI*): $26,402, YoY: 103%
- Panamax (BPI 82K): $14,620, YoY: 68%
- Supramax (BSI 63K): $13,709, YoY: 43%
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 2026 年初運價即走強,打破過往年初轉弱的季節性慣例。(Freight rates strengthened at the start of 2026, breaking the typical seasonal pattern of early-year weakness.)
2. 海岬型與巴拿馬型領漲,顯示長航線與核心貨種需求支撐仍在。(Capesize and Panamax led the rally, indicating continued demand support from long-haul routes and core bulk commodities.)
3. 運價水準明顯高於去年同期,顯示市場結構面改善已開始反映於實際營運表現。(Freight levels are materially higher year-on-year, reflecting a simultaneous improvement in market sentiment and underlying structural fundamentals.)
Source: Baltic Exchange | * : BCI: C5TC 182K (2024-25); C5TC 180K (2023).

Outlook & Strategy

2026年乾散貨貿易量:總量低成長貨種表現明顯分化 (2026 Dry Bulk Trade: Low Growth Overall with Diverging Cargo Trends)

2026F Dry Bulk Trade Volumes (Mt, YOY) (2026年預測乾散貨貿易量 - 百萬噸, 年增率):
- Iron Ore (鐵礦石): 1,643, 0.9%
- Coal (煤炭): 1,282, -3.8%
- Steel Products (鋼鐵產品): 398, -0.9%
- Wheat / Grains (小麥/穀物): 386, 1.3%
- Bauxite (鋁土礦): 247, 4.7%
- Grain (穀物): 581, 5.1% (Total for Wheat/Grains, Soybean)
- Soybean (大豆): 195, 12.7%
- Cement (水泥): 145, 2.9%
- Scrap (廢鋼): 93, 3.5%
- Salt (鹽): 61, 2.8%
- Manganese Ore (錳礦石): 47, 3.8%
- Total Dry Bulk (乾散貨總計): 5,951, 0.6%
  - (total tonne-mile +1.9%YoY) (總延噸海浬 +1.9%年增率)
  - (minor bulk tonne-mile +2.1% YoY) (小宗散貨延噸海浬 +2.1%年增率)
Cargo Trend Summary (貨種趨勢摘要):
- Iron Ore (鐵礦石): Trade to remain broadly flat, weaker China imports offset by long-haul shipments from Guinea.
- Coal (煤炭): Seaborne coal demand to decline further, reflecting structural pressure from energy transition and softer steel output.
- Grain (穀物): Trade to grow around ~5%, led by a rebound in soybean flows and stronger US-China trade volumes.
- Bauxite (鋁土礦): Demand to grow around ~5%, driven by rising Chinese imports and expanding West African supply.
UM View (裕民觀點): 從總量來看,2026年全球乾散貨貿易量幾乎持平,顯示市場已進入低成長階段。(On a volume basis, global dry bulk trade in 2026 is expected to remain broadly flat, indicating the market has entered a low-growth phase.)
Source: Clarksons DBTO Feb 2026

2026年乾散貨需求:貨量成長有限延噸海浬成為關鍵支撐 (2026 Demand Growth: Limited Volume Growth with Tonne-Mile as Key Support)

World Dry Bulk Trade Growth Rate (%) (全球乾散貨貿易成長率):
- Million Tonnes (百萬噸) and Billion Tonne-miles (十億延噸海浬) show tonne-mile growth outperforming volume growth, especially in 2026(f) and 2027(f).
- 2026(f) growth rates: Million Tonnes 0.6%, Billion Tonne-miles 1.8%.
Iron Ore Voyage Days Comparison (days) (鐵礦石航程天數比較):
- AU→China (澳洲→中國): 30 days
- BZ→China (巴西→中國): 92 days
- W.Africa→China (西非→中國): 93 days
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 2026 年乾散貨實體量僅低個位數成長。(Physical dry bulk volumes in 2026 are expected to grow at a low single-digit rate.)
2. 但長航線占比上升,推升延噸海浬成長。(A rising share of long-haul trades is driving growth in tonne-mile demand.)
3. 需求支撐已由「貨量」轉向「距離結構」。(Demand support is shifting from cargo volumes to distance-driven trade structures.)
Source: Clarksons Seaborne Trade Tables; SEA-DISTANCES.ORG

鐵礦石貿易結構逐步轉移:大西洋航線占比上升 (Iron Ore Trade Is Gradually Shifting Toward the Atlantic Basin)

Iron Ore Exports Mix: Pacific vs Atlantic (%) (鐵礦石出口組合: 太平洋 vs 大西洋):
- Atlantic exports (大西洋出口):
  - 2021: 29%
  - 2024: 30%
  - 2026E: 31%
  - 2027E: 31%
- Pacific exports (太平洋出口):
  - 2021: 71%
  - 2024: 70%
  - 2026E: 69%
  - 2027E: 69%
Brazil & W.Africa Iron Ore Exports (mt) (巴西與西非鐵礦石出口量 - 百萬噸):
- BZ iron ore (巴西鐵礦石):
  - 2015: 447
  - 2018: 465
  - 2021: 435
  - 2024: 467
  - 2026E: 529
  - 2027E: 552
- Africa iron ore (非洲鐵礦石): (Stacked on BZ iron ore, showing growth)
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 鐵礦石出口來源由太平洋逐步轉向大西洋,長航程礦源占比持續上升。(Iron ore export supply is gradually shifting from the Pacific to the Atlantic basin, increasing the share of long-haul cargoes.)
2. 即使總貨量成長有限,航線結構轉移仍為延噸海浬提供結構性支撐。(Even with limited growth in total volumes, changes in trade route structure continue to provide structural support to tonne-mile demand.)
Source: Clarksons SIN

幾內亞與巴西成為長航程鐵礦石供應的主要推動來源 (Guinea and Brazil Are Emerging as Key Drivers of Long-Haul Iron Ore Supply)

Simandou Iron Ore Production Outlook (MT) (西芒度鐵礦石產量展望 - 百萬噸):
- Shows a ramp-up period of ~30 months, with significant production expected from 2027-2028.
Vale Iron Ore Production (MT) (淡水河谷鐵礦石產量 - 百萬噸):
- 2024: 328
- 2025: ~335
- 2026: 335-345
- 2030: ~360
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 巴西鐵礦石出口量已回升至歷史高檔,且未來數年仍具溫和成長空間。(Brazilian iron ore exports have rebounded to historically high levels and are expected to maintain modest growth potential over the coming years.)
2. 西非(以幾內亞為主)鐵礦石與鋁土礦供給進入結構性放量階段,惟短期仍受鐵路與港口效率限制,出貨量將循序上升。(Iron ore and bauxite supply from West Africa—led by Guinea—is entering a phase of structural expansion; however, near-term shipment growth remains constrained by rail and port efficiency, resulting in a gradual ramp-up in exports.)
3. 即使全球鐵礦石實體量僅低個位數成長,長航程礦源占比上升,仍將成為延噸海浬成長的關鍵驅動力。(Even with global iron ore volumes growing at only a low single-digit pace, the rising share of long-haul supply will remain a key driver of tonne-mile growth.)
Source: Bloomberg; Rio Tinto

中國鐵礦石需求:結構調整中總體進口需求仍具韌性 (China Iron Ore Demand: Structural Adjustment with Continued Import Resilience)

China Iron Ore Import Requirement (mt) (中國鐵礦石進口需求 - 百萬噸):
- Shows a relatively stable import requirement from 2026(f) to 2030(f), ranging between 1240-1270 mt.
Iron Ore Grade Comparison by Supply Source (%Fe) (按供應來源劃分的鐵礦石品位比較):
- Brazil (巴西): ~63% Fe
- West Africa (西非): ~60% Fe
- Australia (澳洲): ~58% Fe
- China domestic (中國國內): ~28% Fe
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 在節能減碳政策推動下,高品位鐵礦石需求呈現上升趨勢,具備品位優勢的巴西與西非礦源,對部分低品位澳洲礦形成替代空間。(Driven by energy-efficiency and decarbonization policies, demand for high-grade iron ore is trending upward, allowing Brazilian and West African supply—benefiting from grade advantages—to partially substitute lower-grade Australian ores.)
2. 由於中國本地鐵礦石品位偏低,使進口鐵礦石在可預見期間內,仍為主要供給來源。(Given the relatively low grade of domestic iron ore in China, imported iron ore is expected to remain the primary source of supply over the foreseeable future.)
3. 短期內高爐仍為主流製程,電爐比重提升速度有限,代表中國鐵礦石進口需求結構,短期內不致出現劇烈改變。(In the near term, blast furnaces will continue to dominate steelmaking, with only a gradual increase in electric arc furnace adoption, implying no material change to China's iron ore import demand structure in the short run.)
Source: Platts; U-MING research

2026年供給面:有效運力偏緊 (2026 Supply Outlook: Nominal Fleet Growth with Constrained Effective Capacity)

Bulkcarrier Orderbook % Fleet (%) (散裝船訂單佔船隊比例):
- Historically high in 2008 (78.3%), declining to 12.5% in 2026.
Dry Bulk Age Profile (m dwt) (乾散貨船隊船齡分佈 - 百萬載重噸):
- 0-4 years: Significant portion
- 5-9 years: Significant portion
- 10-14 years: Largest portion
- 15-19 years: 31%
- 20+ years: 11%
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 新船訂單比率維持低檔,短期供給成長有限。(Newbuilding ordering remains at historically low levels, implying limited fleet growth in the near term.)
2. 約30% 船隊船齡逾15年,老舊船營運受限。(Approximately 30% of the global fleet is over 15 years old, constraining the effective operational capacity of aging vessels.)
3. 名目供給成長,但實際運力偏緊,有利運價支撐。(While nominal fleet supply continues to expand, effective capacity remains tight, providing underlying support for freight rates.)
Source: Clarksons SIN

2026-2028年有效運力受特檢排程與船塢資源限制 (Why Effective Fleet Availability May Be Constrained in 2026-2028)

Bulkcarrier Deliveries (No) (散裝船交付數量):
- Peak deliveries observed between 2010-2012.
- 15-Yr Special Survey scheduled for 2026-2028.
- Off-hire period: 3-4 weeks.
No. Active Shipyards, China (No) (中國活躍船廠數量):
- Declined significantly from ~500 in 2008 to below 250 in 2026.
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 2010-2012年交船潮對應的船舶,將於2026–2028年集中進入15年特檢高峰,單次進場時間可能長達3-4週,進塢艘數顯著上升。(Vessels delivered during the 2010–2012 newbuilding cycle will enter a peak period for their 15-year special surveys between 2026 and 2028, with individual drydock stays potentially lasting 3–4 weeks and a materially higher number of ships requiring docking.)
2. 在修船塢位不足與造船塢位滿載的背景下,單船停航與等待時間將拉長,壓抑有效運力供給。(Against a backdrop of limited repair yard availability and fully utilized shipbuilding capacity, vessel downtime and waiting periods are expected to lengthen, further constraining effective fleet supply.)
Source: Clarksons SIN

風險一:動力煤海運需求呈現結構性轉弱 (Challenge #1: Seaborne Thermal Coal Demand Is Structurally Weakening)

Coal Trade (Mt) (煤炭貿易量 - 百萬噸):
- Shows a decline from peaks, falling below the long-term trend.
Coal Share in Power Generation — Major Economies (%) (主要經濟體發電中煤炭佔比):
- China, India, European Union, Japan all show a declining trend in coal's share in power generation from 2010 to 2026.
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 全球動力煤海運貿易量,已自疫情與能源危機高點回落,並跌破長期趨勢線,顯示需求高原期已結束。(Global seaborne thermal coal trade has retreated from the pandemic- and energy-crisis-driven peaks and fallen below its long-term trend, indicating that the demand plateau has passed.)
2. 隨著各國能源轉型政策加速、再生能源與儲能裝置容量快速擴張,燃煤發電在電力結構中的角色正被結構性調整。(As energy transition policies accelerate and renewable generation and energy storage capacity expand rapidly, coal-fired power is being structurally crowded out of the global power mix.)
3. 即使在新興市場,新增電力需求也更多由再生能源與天然氣承接,使煤炭海運需求結構性轉弱。(Even in emerging markets, incremental power demand is increasingly met by renewables and natural gas, seaborne thermal coal demand is structurally weakening.)
Source: Clarksons; Our World in Data; Ember (European Electricity Review 2025); Reuters; estimates by U-Ming

風險二:西芒度鐵礦石出貨量具高度不確定性 (Challenge #2: Guinea Iron Ore Ramp-Up Is Unlikely to Be Linear)

Simandou Iron Ore Production Outlook (MT) (西芒度鐵礦石產量展望 - 百萬噸):
- Base case shows a steep ramp-up.
- Conservative estimates (e.g., cited by Bloomberg) suggest a slower ramp, with ~12 Mt in 2026 and <60 Mt even by 2028 for the Rio Tinto side.
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 幾內亞鐵礦石實際出貨量,可能落後於原始產能規劃。(Actual iron ore shipments from Guinea may lag initial capacity plans.)
2. 鐵路運輸效率、港口裝船能力與轉運作業瓶頸,使短期出貨量高度受限,放量節奏難以精準預測。(Constraints in rail transport efficiency, port loading capacity, and transshipment operations are expected to materially limit near-term export volumes, making the pace of ramp-up difficult to forecast with precision.)
Image: Illustrates potential bottlenecks in the supply chain: Mine/Upstream Supply, Rail Corridor, Port Yard/Stockpile, Berths/Shiploading.

風險三:短期庫存與生產節奏錯位海岬型船舶運價可能出現短期修正壓力 (Challenge #3: Short-Term Inventory and Production Mismatch May Trigger Tactical Freight Corrections)

China iron ore port inventory (中國鐵礦石港口庫存):
- Shows current inventory levels are elevated, reaching 180.10 in 2026-2.
China pig iron production (Mmt) (中國生鐵產量 - 百萬噸):
- Shows a marginal slowdown in recent periods.
UM View (裕民觀點):
- 中國鐵礦石港口庫存處於高位,疊加生鐵產量邊際趨緩,短期內可能對海岬型運價形成修正壓力。此屬庫存與出貨節奏調整,並不改變中長期長航程礦源占比上升所帶來的延噸海浬結構性支撐。(Elevated iron ore port inventories in China, together with a marginal slowdown in pig iron production, may exert near-term corrective pressure on Capesize freight rates. This reflects inventory and shipment timing adjustments rather than a change in the medium- to long-term structural support to tonne-mile demand driven by the rising share of long-haul iron ore supply.)

結構性機會一:博凱深水港有望逐步改善幾內亞出貨瓶頸 (Opportunity #1: Boké Deepwater Port May Gradually Ease Guinea's Export Bottlenecks)

BOKÉ MULTIPURPOSE DEEP SEA PORT PROJECT, GUINEA (幾內亞博凱多用途深水港項目):
- Official Launch (正式啟動): Jan 11, 2025 | Guinea Ministry of Mines (MMG)
- Location (地點): M'BOTTINI, KOUFFIN (KAMSAR)
- Target Vessels (目標船型): 200K - 300K DWT VLOC
- Module 1: Public Infrastructure (公共基礎設施): PPP Model, Shared Facility
- Module 2: Efficient Bauxite Export (高效鋁土礦出口): Direct Shipping, No Barges
- Module 3: Global Connectivity (全球互聯互通): Asia-Focused Routes, Stable Capesize Demand
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 博凱多用途深水港專案,將使幾內亞首次具備可供20萬噸以上船型直接靠泊與裝船的現代化深水港口條件,有助提升單船裝載效率與港口周轉率。(The Boké deepwater port enhances Guinea's export capacity by enabling direct loading, reducing transshipment, and improving logistics efficiency.)
2. 相較現行以轉運與吃水受限碼頭為主的出貨體系,博凱港將可降低對內河駁船與外錨地轉運的依賴,減少物流環節中的摩擦成本與不確定性。(Compared to the current transshipment-reliant system, Boké Port will reduce dependence on river barges and offshore transshipment, lowering friction costs and uncertainty in logistics.)
3. 這代表未來幾內亞出貨能力的提升,將不僅取決於礦山產能與鐵路運能,也開始受到港口基礎建設改善的正向支撐。(This means future improvements in Guinea's export capacity will not only depend on mine and rail capacity but also benefit from improved port infrastructure.)

結構性機會二:長航程鐵礦石貿易具備較高可預期性 (Opportunity #2: Long-Haul Iron Ore with Increasing Demand Visibility)

Trade Flow Overview (貿易流量概覽):
- Total Intake in the Selected Period (選定期間總進口量): 1,732,750,644
- Total Intake in the Preceding Period (前一期間總進口量): 1,448,628,890
- Intake Difference (selected-preceding) (進口量差異): 284,121,754
- YOY (年增率): 19.61%
- YOY (%) by year: 2021: -20.33%, 2022: 7.04%, 2023: -6.40%, 2024: 24.26%, 2025: 22.91%
- Size (船型大小): 220K+ (48.52%), 200-219K (18.48%), 160-199K (32.09%)
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 在中國CMRG集中採購制度下,出貨節奏與價格波動趨於平穩,使長航程鐵礦石貿易具備更高可預期性。(Under CMRG centralized procurement, long-haul iron ore trade has become more predictable, driven by supply shifts and grade substitution rather than short-term steel cycles.)
2. 長航程鐵礦石貿易已不再完全受短期鋼鐵循環主導,而是更多反映礦源結構轉移與品位替代效應,需求韌性顯著高於傳統認知。(Long-haul iron ore trade is no longer solely driven by short-term steel cycles but increasingly reflects structural shifts in mining sources and grade substitution effects, with demand resilience significantly higher than traditionally perceived.)
3. 這使長航程鐵礦石,成為乾散貨中少數同時具備「距離結構優勢」與「需求可預期性」的結構性機會。(This makes long-haul iron ore one of the few structural opportunities in dry bulk that simultaneously offers "distance structure advantages" and "demand predictability.")
Source: U-Ming

結構性機會三:鋁土礦成為乾散貨中成長動能最強的品項之一 (Opportunity #3: Bauxite as One of the Fastest-Growing Dry Bulk Segments)

China Bauxite Imports (Mt) (中國鋁土礦進口量 - 百萬噸):
- Shows a consistent increase from 2017 to 2027(f), reaching 225 Mt in 2027(f).
China Alumina Production (Mt) (中國氧化鋁產量 - 百萬噸):
- Shows a steady increase from 2017 to 2027(f), reaching over 14,000 Mt in 2027(f).
EV Sales and Penetration in China (中國電動車銷量與滲透率):
- Shows rapid growth in EV sales volume (k) and penetration (%) from 2015 to 2030E.
Guinea Bauxite Export Destinations (%) (幾內亞鋁土礦出口目的地):
- China (中國): 74%
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 中國鋁土礦進口量已連續多年創新高,成長動能來自氧化鋁產能擴張,而非短期價格或庫存循環。(China's bauxite imports continue to hit record highs, driven by alumina capacity expansion and energy transition demand, making bauxite a rare dry bulk with long-term demand visibility.)
2. 在電動車、再生能源與電力基礎建設帶動下,鋁材需求已由傳統房地產週期,轉向能源轉型與交通電動化週期。(Driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power infrastructure, aluminum demand has shifted from traditional real estate cycles to energy transition and transportation electrification cycles.)
3. 使鋁土礦成為乾散貨中少數具備「長期需求可見度」的結構性成長品項。(This makes bauxite one of the few dry bulk commodities with "long-term demand visibility" and structural growth.)
Source: Splash 247; National Bureau of Statistics; Schroders; Reuters

結構性機會四:穀物貿易航線選擇出現結構性調整 (Opportunity #4: Structural Changes in Grain Trade Routing)

US-China Grain Routes: Panama Canal vs Cape of Good Hope (美中穀物航線: 巴拿馬運河 vs 好望角):
- Panama Canal Route (巴拿馬運河航線):
  - Approx. Voyage Distance: 10,000-11,500 NM
  - Approx. Voyage Duration: 25-30 DAYS
  - Fuel Cost: HIGHER PER DAY
  - Panama Canal Transit Fee: SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND USD (Variable, e.g., $300k - $800k+)
- Cape of Good Hope Route (好望角航線):
  - Approx. Voyage Distance: 13,500-15,000 NM
  - Approx. Voyage Duration: 35-45 DAYS
  - Fuel Cost: HIGHER TOTAL DUE TO DISTANCE
  - Cape of Good Hope Fee: NONE
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 近期美中穀物貿易出貨量出現回升跡象,惟整體仍處於相對淡季水準。(US-China grain trade is recovering, with Cape routing replacing the Panama Canal, structurally lengthening voyages and boosting tonne-mile demand despite subdued volumes.)
2. 在巴拿馬運河通行費高昂、通關與排隊時間拉長的背景下,部分穀物貨盤改走好望角航線,使單航次運距顯著拉長。(Against a backdrop of high Panama Canal transit fees, customs clearance, and extended waiting times, some grain cargoes are rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, significantly lengthening single-voyage distances.)
3. 即使整體貨量尚未回到高檔,航線結構改變已實質推升延噸海浬需求。(Even if overall cargo volumes have not returned to high levels, the change in routing structure has substantially boosted tonne-mile demand.)
Image: Map illustrating the two routes and their characteristics.

結構性機會五:散裝船承運貨物類型逐步多元化 (Opportunity #5: Gradual Diversification of Cargoes Carried by Bulk Carriers)

Image: Shows a multi-purpose Newcastlemax vessel carrying machinery, equipment, and iron ore.
UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 裕民近期承運風機及機器設備等非傳統原物料,顯示散裝船可承運的商品更加多元,有利於運力需求。(U-Ming has recently transported non-traditional raw materials such as wind turbines and machinery equipment, demonstrating the increasing diversification of goods that bulk carriers can transport, which is beneficial for capacity demand.)
2. 同業為西芒度專案訂造具多用途設計之Newcastlemax 船型,反映市場正以「去回程貨流互補」邏輯重新思考散裝船的設計與使用方式。(Competitors are ordering multi-purpose Newcastlemax vessels for the Simandou project, reflecting the market's rethinking of bulk carrier design and usage with a "backhaul cargo flow complementarity" logic.)
3. 雖然此類船舶仍屬利基市場,但顯示散裝船正逐步切入過去非核心的高價值運輸需求。(While these types of vessels still operate in a niche market, it indicates that bulk carriers are gradually entering higher-value transportation demands that were previously non-core.)
Participation remains selective and return-disciplined. (參與仍具選擇性並遵循回報紀律。)

中東衝突直接影響有限航運風險上升支撐散裝運價 (Limited Direct Impact on Middle East Conflict, but Rising Shipping Risks Support Dry Bulk Rates)

UM View (裕民觀點):
1. 中東衝突對散裝航運直接影響有限,因僅約2% dry bulk trade 經由Strait of Hormuz。(The Middle East conflict has limited direct impact on dry bulk shipping, as only about 2% of dry bulk trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.)
2. 但航運風險、保險成本與航行限制可能推升風險溢價與航程時間。(However, higher shipping risks, insurance costs, and navigation restrictions may increase risk premiums and voyage durations.)
3. 若衝突升級導致能源 (石油&天然氣)價格上升與航線繞行,將刺激煤炭需求、短期收緊船舶供給並支撐運價。(If the conflict escalates, rising oil and gas prices and potential rerouting could boost coal demand, tighten vessel supply in the short term, and support freight rates.)
Image: Shows a bulk carrier "OCEAN FORAGER" at sea.

2026年市場展望:結構性延噸海浬支撐供給受限運價有望穩健成長 (2026 Market Outlook: Structural Tonne-Mile Growth and Constrained Supply Support a Gradual Recovery)

基準情境 (Base Case):
- 2026 運價 freight > 2025
- 延噸海浬成長 tonne-mile growth (需求Demand↑)
- 有效供給受限 Limited supply
下行風險 (Risks):
- 西非礦源放量節奏可能慢於市場預期 Ramp-up of West African supply remains uncertain
- 煤炭需求結構性走弱 Structurally weaker coal demand
- 市場對「供給緊縮」的反應可能存在時間落差 There may be a timing gap between tightening supply fundamentals and market pricing
上行動能 (Upside):
- 延噸海浬成長具備放大效果 Tonne-mile growth has a magnifying effect
- 幾內亞港口與物流瓶頸一旦改善,出貨效率提升 Improvements in Guinea's port and logistics efficiency could enhance loading efficiency
- 鋁土礦具中長期需求能見度 Bauxite demand offers cross-cycle visibility
供給展望 (Supply):
- 船隊成長 Fleet supply 3 - 4%
- 新船訂單率低 Low newbuilding orderbook
- 船齡老化 Aging fleet
- 船速維持低檔 Low sailing speeds
結論 (Conclusion): 結構性延噸海浬增長 + 供給受限 → 2026 乾散貨市場溫和回升 (Structural tonne-mile growth + constrained supply → 2026 dry bulk market mild recovery)
Summary Statement: Short-term volatility and execution risks remain, but medium-term dry bulk demand is increasingly supported by structural tonne-mile growth rather than pure volume expansion.

Additional Data

Disclaimer (免責聲明)

This presentation contains forward-looking statements subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially. Do not place undue reliance on forward-looking information.
U-MING relied on public sources and information provided to U-MING. Neither U-MING nor its advisors make representations or warranties regarding accuracy or completeness. No liability is assumed for any loss arising from the use of this presentation.
This presentation and its contents may not be reproduced without the written consent of U-MING.

Contact Information (聯絡資訊)

IR Team | Planning Department
Email: IR@mail.uming.com.tw
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相關功能

裕民航運股份有限公司 (2606TT) 2026Q1 法說會簡報

Company Overview

船隊配置 (Fleet Profile)

自有船隊持續汰舊換新轉型優化 (Ongoing Fleet Renewal with a Young and Energy-Efficient Profile)

Sustainable & Smart fleet (永續與智慧船隊)

Financial Highlights

2025年營運暨財務概況 (2025 annual results highlights)

Recent Performance and Results

靈活精準的市場調度驅動超越市場水準的日租金表現 (Agile and strategic market deployment driving superior time charter rates across all segments)

2025年各船型營收貢獻與合約配置 (Revenue Contribution and Contract Coverage by Vessel Type (2025))

海岬型船舶帶動下前兩月現貨市場表現優於歷史季節性 (Spot Market TCE: First Two Months Performance Above Seasonal Averages)

Outlook & Strategy

2026年乾散貨貿易量:總量低成長貨種表現明顯分化 (2026 Dry Bulk Trade: Low Growth Overall with Diverging Cargo Trends)

2026年乾散貨需求:貨量成長有限延噸海浬成為關鍵支撐 (2026 Demand Growth: Limited Volume Growth with Tonne-Mile as Key Support)

鐵礦石貿易結構逐步轉移:大西洋航線占比上升 (Iron Ore Trade Is Gradually Shifting Toward the Atlantic Basin)

幾內亞與巴西成為長航程鐵礦石供應的主要推動來源 (Guinea and Brazil Are Emerging as Key Drivers of Long-Haul Iron Ore Supply)

中國鐵礦石需求:結構調整中總體進口需求仍具韌性 (China Iron Ore Demand: Structural Adjustment with Continued Import Resilience)

2026年供給面:有效運力偏緊 (2026 Supply Outlook: Nominal Fleet Growth with Constrained Effective Capacity)

2026-2028年有效運力受特檢排程與船塢資源限制 (Why Effective Fleet Availability May Be Constrained in 2026-2028)

風險一:動力煤海運需求呈現結構性轉弱 (Challenge #1: Seaborne Thermal Coal Demand Is Structurally Weakening)

風險二:西芒度鐵礦石出貨量具高度不確定性 (Challenge #2: Guinea Iron Ore Ramp-Up Is Unlikely to Be Linear)

風險三:短期庫存與生產節奏錯位海岬型船舶運價可能出現短期修正壓力 (Challenge #3: Short-Term Inventory and Production Mismatch May Trigger Tactical Freight Corrections)

結構性機會一:博凱深水港有望逐步改善幾內亞出貨瓶頸 (Opportunity #1: Boké Deepwater Port May Gradually Ease Guinea's Export Bottlenecks)

結構性機會二:長航程鐵礦石貿易具備較高可預期性 (Opportunity #2: Long-Haul Iron Ore with Increasing Demand Visibility)

結構性機會三:鋁土礦成為乾散貨中成長動能最強的品項之一 (Opportunity #3: Bauxite as One of the Fastest-Growing Dry Bulk Segments)

結構性機會四:穀物貿易航線選擇出現結構性調整 (Opportunity #4: Structural Changes in Grain Trade Routing)

結構性機會五:散裝船承運貨物類型逐步多元化 (Opportunity #5: Gradual Diversification of Cargoes Carried by Bulk Carriers)

中東衝突直接影響有限航運風險上升支撐散裝運價 (Limited Direct Impact on Middle East Conflict, but Rising Shipping Risks Support Dry Bulk Rates)

2026年市場展望:結構性延噸海浬支撐供給受限運價有望穩健成長 (2026 Market Outlook: Structural Tonne-Mile Growth and Constrained Supply Support a Gradual Recovery)

Additional Data

Disclaimer (免責聲明)

Contact Information (聯絡資訊)

🤖 FinmoAI

📱 即時通知服務

相關功能

裕民航運股份有限公司 (2606TT) 2026Q1 法說會簡報

Company Overview

船隊配置 (Fleet Profile)

自有船隊持續汰舊換新轉型優化 (Ongoing Fleet Renewal with a Young and Energy-Efficient Profile)

Sustainable & Smart fleet (永續與智慧船隊)

Financial Highlights

2025年營運暨財務概況 (2025 annual results highlights)

Recent Performance and Results

靈活精準的市場調度驅動超越市場水準的日租金表現 (Agile and strategic market deployment driving superior time charter rates across all segments)

2025年各船型營收貢獻與合約配置 (Revenue Contribution and Contract Coverage by Vessel Type (2025))

海岬型船舶帶動下前兩月現貨市場表現優於歷史季節性 (Spot Market TCE: First Two Months Performance Above Seasonal Averages)

Outlook & Strategy

2026年乾散貨貿易量:總量低成長貨種表現明顯分化 (2026 Dry Bulk Trade: Low Growth Overall with Diverging Cargo Trends)

2026年乾散貨需求:貨量成長有限延噸海浬成為關鍵支撐 (2026 Demand Growth: Limited Volume Growth with Tonne-Mile as Key Support)

鐵礦石貿易結構逐步轉移:大西洋航線占比上升 (Iron Ore Trade Is Gradually Shifting Toward the Atlantic Basin)

幾內亞與巴西成為長航程鐵礦石供應的主要推動來源 (Guinea and Brazil Are Emerging as Key Drivers of Long-Haul Iron Ore Supply)

中國鐵礦石需求:結構調整中總體進口需求仍具韌性 (China Iron Ore Demand: Structural Adjustment with Continued Import Resilience)

2026年供給面:有效運力偏緊 (2026 Supply Outlook: Nominal Fleet Growth with Constrained Effective Capacity)

2026-2028年有效運力受特檢排程與船塢資源限制 (Why Effective Fleet Availability May Be Constrained in 2026-2028)

風險一:動力煤海運需求呈現結構性轉弱 (Challenge #1: Seaborne Thermal Coal Demand Is Structurally Weakening)

風險二:西芒度鐵礦石出貨量具高度不確定性 (Challenge #2: Guinea Iron Ore Ramp-Up Is Unlikely to Be Linear)

風險三:短期庫存與生產節奏錯位 海岬型船舶運價可能出現短期修正壓力 (Challenge #3: Short-Term Inventory and Production Mismatch May Trigger Tactical Freight Corrections)

結構性機會一:博凱深水港有望逐步改善幾內亞出貨瓶頸 (Opportunity #1: Boké Deepwater Port May Gradually Ease Guinea's Export Bottlenecks)

結構性機會二:長航程鐵礦石貿易具備較高可預期性 (Opportunity #2: Long-Haul Iron Ore with Increasing Demand Visibility)

結構性機會三:鋁土礦成為乾散貨中成長動能最強的品項之一 (Opportunity #3: Bauxite as One of the Fastest-Growing Dry Bulk Segments)

結構性機會四:穀物貿易航線選擇出現結構性調整 (Opportunity #4: Structural Changes in Grain Trade Routing)

結構性機會五:散裝船承運貨物類型逐步多元化 (Opportunity #5: Gradual Diversification of Cargoes Carried by Bulk Carriers)

中東衝突直接影響有限航運風險上升支撐散裝運價 (Limited Direct Impact on Middle East Conflict, but Rising Shipping Risks Support Dry Bulk Rates)

2026年市場展望:結構性延噸海浬支撐供給受限運價有望穩健成長 (2026 Market Outlook: Structural Tonne-Mile Growth and Constrained Supply Support a Gradual Recovery)

Additional Data

Disclaimer (免責聲明)

Contact Information (聯絡資訊)

🤖 FinmoAI

📱 即時通知服務

風險三:短期庫存與生產節奏錯位海岬型船舶運價可能出現短期修正壓力 (Challenge #3: Short-Term Inventory and Production Mismatch May Trigger Tactical Freight Corrections)